I've joked about the SEC's "Pre-Crime Unit" before and I'll probably continue to do so until someone educates me about what this group actually does.  I'm referring, of course, to the SEC's "Office of Risk Assessment," which was created back in 2003 and given the mission, as I understand it, of predicting the future. 

Since predicting the future is notoriously difficult, the SEC's chairmen have tended to use more flowery language when attempting to articulate the ORA's mission--"seeing around corners," "seeing over hills," and " seeing over the horizon" appear to be steady favorites.

Chairman Donaldson, for instance, stated in this March 2004 speech  that the mission of the ORA is "to see over the hills and around the corners of problems that may be looming in the distance," which was consistent with his earlier statement that ORA was designed to "head off major problems before they occur."

Although there has been at least some speculation as to whether new Chairman Cox was a believer in the ORA concept, Cox seemed to put that to rest through comments he made on Sunday during his visit to China.  Discussing the Refco case, Cox reportedly stated that

"There is always the possibility for broader effects from individual cases," Cox said. "That is why the SEC has a special unit for looking over the horizon and around the corner to discover whether or not such risks are materializing."

[Let me ask this question again:  Is a position in ORA a good gig or bad gig? Can anyone really fault you even if you completely and utterly fail to see over hills and horizons, stop problems before they occur or otherwise fail to foresee the future?

According to this Dow Jones article, the ORA was "stuck in 'a holding pattern' for a while," but, according to Peter Derby, the SEC's former managing director for operations, finally "kicked in to gear this spring."  "It's up and running, they're doing work," said Derby.

What kind of work? It's really not clear from the article.  However, the results of whatever work is being done are apparently being kept in a "big binder":

The risk assessment office works with others at the SEC to identify key risks to U.S. markets and investors. For now, Fishkin keeps results in a big binder. He plans to replace it with a computer program that will display risks and show whether they are increasing or decreasing, offering regulators a kind of market radar.

The article notes that another key weapon in the ORA's arsenal is "reading":

Reading is another weapon in the office's arsenal. Fishkin said staffers regularly plow through stacks of academic reports and stock research looking for 'red flags' in market incentives, behaviors, products or procedures.